Okay, it is necessary to write this. Terry Francona needs to be fired or at the very least he needs to get his head on straight.
He has mismanaged the Sox time after time this season. This, for me, is the last straw.
Sunday, August 21st. Sox vs. Yankees. The sox have lost the first 3 of the 5 game series to fall 4.5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. The Sox desparately need a win. Schilling pitches an absolutely inspired game, going 7 innings, giving up 3 runs, despite a 45 minute rain delay. He hands a 5-3 lead over to the bullpen.
Tito brings in Timlin in the 8th. I can understand the logic of this, initially. But, if he’s going to do this, he should be committed to letting Timlin go the whole inning. As we will see, he was not. Timlin lets the first two batters reach, and then he brings in Lopez, the lefty, to face Giambi, who walks to load the bases. Tito then brings in Papelbon, who gives up a sac fly to get the score to 5-4, and then strikes out the last 2 to get out of the inning. Then, in the bottom of the 9th, Papelbon gives up the lead. Not Tito’s fault there, directly, but we can argue that he tired by the time he faced Jeter.
Tito, I know you probably won’t read this, but I’ll say it anyway. The Sox NEEDED this game. Papelbon was the only rested pitcher in the pen. He is also your ACE in the pen. If you’re going to go down, you go down with your best. I can understand if Papelbon was tired, if he had pitched once in the last 2 days and didn’t have all his gas in the tank. Then, you make a committment to only bring him in in the 9th with a lead. But, this was not the case!
There was your first chance you had to win the game, Tito. That was mistake number 1.
Next, bottom of the 9th. Ortiz on 2nd after he reached on an error and some serious hustle. Manny on first after an intentional walk. Youkilis up. We all know that Youkilis does not bunt well. We all know that Papi is slower than my mom. You know your bullpen is wasted, Papelbon is done after throwing nearly 50 pitches. You cannot win this game if it goes into extra innings. You have a golden opportunity to score a run.
What do you do here? One or both of two things. First, pinch hit for Youkilis with Alex Gonzalez who has 6 sac bunts this season, compared to Youkilis’ ZERO. Tito, some elementary math, 6>0. Second, Papi is slow. If you have Gonzalez bunt, you can pinch run for him with Hinske. Yes, I know that Hinske is no burner, but he had no other options, considering that Gonzalez, Coco, Cora, and Kapler were all already in the game. If you choose not to pinch hit for Youk, then put Gonzalez in for Papi.
Well, in case you were wondering, Tito didn’t pinch hit for Youk. Youk bunted right back to Rivera, who forced Papi at 3rd. A passed ball moved Manny to 3rd and Youk to 2nd with one out. You got lucky that Manny got to third off the passed ball. If Ortiz/Gonzalez is on third when that happens, run scores, game over.
That was your second chance to win the game. There’s your second mistake.
So, now, Manny on 3rd, Youk on 2nd, one out. Lowell has been intentionally walked to load the bases. Kapler should be coming to the plate. But wait, you pinch hit with Hinske, a LEFTY against Rivera. Now, let’s think. Rivera has an absolutely nasty cut fastball, his signature pitch, which saws off lefthanded batters. Yes, Hinske was 3-8 against Rivera before, but, let’s not be myopic about this. Rivera, over the past 3 years, has held lefties to a .204 average, .239 on base, and a .247 slug. Righties have not lit him up, but at least they hit .221 avg, .290 on base, and .295 slug.
Furthermore, let’s consider the situation more carefully. Bases loaded, ONE OUT. While Hinske has been hitting better this year than Kapler, over their careers, they are essentially equal hitters. Kapler, besides being right handed, has the advantage of significantly more speed. Finally, and this is the kicker for me, Kapler consistently strikes out at a rate of 15% of his at bats. Hinske strikes out at a rate of 23% of his at bats. That’s a full 50% higher strikeout rate.
Yes, I know, statisticians claim that strikeouts aren’t nearly as bad as people think, that productive outs are overrated. Well, with the bases loaded, 1 out, bottom of the ninth with the potential winning run on third, I want the hitter to make contact and put the pressure on the Yankees to force the runner at home, turn the DP, or throw the run out at the plate.
What does Tito do? He pinch hits for Kapler with Hinske, who strikes out on four pitches, swinging through 3 fastballs at the top edge of the zone as Rivera climbed the ladder on him. Then, Mirabelli, swinging at the first pitch, grounds out WEAKLY to Rivera.
Maybe I’m forgetting something, maybe I’m forgetting the magical run of 2004, and maybe I’m overlooking the fact that players make plays, not the manager.
But, doesn’t it strike you, when you think about it, that Tito has been the beneficiary of great teams, and not vice versa? Put Jim Leyland at the helm here and do you think the Sox would have played like this?
Managers put players in positions to make plays. They put them into positions where they can succeed. It is then up to the players to execute. A manager who repeatedly sets up a player to fail will lose the faith of that player. A team whose manager repeatedly sets them up to fail will lose faith in the manager.
Tito Francona played not to lose. He left the pressure on the Sox to outplay the Yankees, over and over again. If you’re going to lose to a team like the Yankees, then you might as well go down with all guns blazing. You want an example? The Florida Marlins of 2003, who walked into punched the Yankees in the mouth to win the World Series. Or, how about a better example, the 2004 Boston Red Sox. The team who looked a 3-0 series deficit in the eye, took a shot of Jack Daniels, and said “Why not us?”
Think back to the memorable plays of that series. Game 4, Sox down 4-3 to the Yanks in the bottom of the 9th. Millar walks. Tito pinch runs with Dave Roberts. Does Roberts stay on first and wait for a hit? No. Roberts went on the first pitch. Rivera knew it, Torre knew it, everyone in Fenway knew it, and everyone watching that game knew it. Roberts put the pressure on the Yankees to make a play. Yes, Roberts does have superior basestealing speed and talent, but he still put the pressure on the Yankees to make a play. He put pressure on Posada, who everyone knows has an average throwing arm and inconsistent footwork behind the plate, to make the throw down. The throw was a good one, just a little bit to the third base side of the bag. That was all Roberts needed. If Roberts gets thrown out there and the Yanks sweep the Sox, no one says anything. Yes, we got swept, how pathetic, but at least we went down being aggressive, playing to win. I promise you, if Roberts doesn’t steal and the Sox end up losing the game, everyone would have pointed to that moment…the moment when the Sox had a chance to make the play, to put the pressure on the opposing team, and they failed to do so.
Now, let’s rewind back to Friday afternoon. The storyline going into the series was about how the pundits didn’t think the Sox pitching, particularly the bullpen, could stand up to the Yanks. Wait a second, the Sox had an OFF DAY on Thursday. The Yankees, on the other hand, ran 4 pitchers out of the pen, Villone, Dotel, Myers, and Bruney for 6 innings in a 12-2 loss to the O’s.
Then, in game 1, with the Sox trailing 4-3 going into the top of the 7th, having gotten unexpectedly good pitching from Jason Johnson and Kyle Snyder, Tito elects to leave Snyder in. Okay, explain this to me, we have Johnson, Lester, Beckett, Schill, and Wells pitching in this series. Clearly the strength of the rotation lies in the last 3 pitchers. You don’t wait to use your bullpen on the days that Schill and Beckett are pitching. You find a way to win one of the Johnson and Lester games. You lose both, and you let the Yankees put the pressure on the Sox to win 2 or 3 out of the last 3 just to keep pace. Tito leaves in Snyder in game 1, who gives up 4 runs in the 7th, essentially ending the game for the Sox. Yes, this is hindsight, but, notice that Tito brought out Delcarmen to relieve Snyder AFTER Synder gives up the 4 runs in the 7th to stretch the NY lead to 5 runs. Yes, the Sox offense is formidable, but is it worth it to run Delcarmen out there to try to keep it within 5 runs with only 9 outs left??? No, bad call Tito. If you’re going to use Delcarmen, Hansen, or Timlin, you do so when the score is 4-3. Once the score gets to 8-3, you concede the game, and you save the pen. You let Seanez or Tavarez take the beating. Tito ended up bringing in Seanez later in the game, and he gave up 4 runs to put the game truly out of reach going into the bottom of the 9th.
Second game, Lester gets knocked around, Tavarez stops the bleeding for a little while. The Sox offense wakes up and gets a lead, with the score 10-7 going into the 7th. Tito has several options here. Bring in Timlin or Hansen. Now, while it would have been nice to have the option of using Delcarmen, Tito had already messed that up in game 1. So, between Timlin and Hansen, who do you pick? Yes, it’s only the 7th inning, but consider this, if Hansen struggles, there is no one to bring in to stop the bleeding. Timlin is notoriously bad at preventing inherited runners from scoring. While he has only allowed 3 of 17 inherited runners to score, this seems to be an abberation, considering that over the past three years he has been with the sox he has allowed nearly 40% of inherited runners to score. His career average is above 36%. Hansen, on the other hand, has only allowed 2 of 12 inherited runners to score this year, and 3 of 15 overall. While admittedly this is a small sample size, it supports the common perception of Timlin as a guy who has to start an inning, and Hansen as more of a guy who can come on in the middle of an inning, especially with his stuff, and get the final out.
Finally, and here’s the kiler for me, you’ve just conceeded the first game to the Yanks. You cannot conceed the second, because that puts your behind the 8 ball over the next 3 games. You have to run out your best middle reliever/setup man, namely Timlin. Also, you want someone who has experience, and 40 year old Timlin has that in spades.
Hell, if that isn’t good enough for you, bring in Foulke. You activated him to pitch. Use him. If you absolutely are sure that Timlin must pitch the 8th, and Papelbon the 9th, then bring in Foulke in the 7th, with Hansen as backup. Yes, he’s coming off the injury, but if he’s active, you might as well find out what he’s got now, rather than using him as a Tavarez/Seanez mop-up guy.
Just in case you weren’t watching, Hansen only got one out, gave up 3 baserunners. Timlin was called in after him, let the 3 baserunners score, and then let 4 more runs in, giving the Yanks a 14-10 lead. Foulke came in to start the 8th inning and pitched 2 innings, giving up no runs, one hit, and two walks, with one strikeout.
Game 3, we lost because of Beckett’s pitching, plain and simple. But, what I don’t understand is why Tito brought in Delcarmen to relieve Beckett, with runners on and the score 6-5. I made the claim earlier that Hansen is better at preventing inherited runners from scoring than Timlin. Well, let’s compare that to Delcarmen. Going into that appearance, he had allowed 11 of 19 inherited runners to score. If Tito is such a stathead, which is why Epstein likes him, why is it that he seems to ignore the statistics that matter most. Yes, I know, a statistic can be brought up to support nearly any decision. But, doesn’t it stand to reason that certain stats, i.e. Rivera’s performance against ALL Right handed and Left handed hitters trumps his performance against Eric Hinske, considering that he’s only faced Hinske 8 times? Likewise, while we are dealing with small sample sizes with Delcarmen and Hansen, doesn’t it make sense to look at the emerging trends?! I haven’t run a t-test or any statistical analysis, but 2 for 12 (3 for 15 career) versus 11 for 19 (12 for 22 career) seems to be an obvious trend.
That brings us back to game 4, which I’ve already dissected.
So, now that I’m almost done with my Harp Lager, and the clock is about to strike midnight, I think I will wrap up this ramble. The Sox lost tonight. That, in of itself, even to the Yankees, is no big deal. What bothers me, what should bother you, and what should bother the players, management, and ownership of the Boston Red Sox, is the uninspired, passive, and lackluster play of its players. Today, the Curt Schilling of 2004 came back from the seeming grave of the 91 mph fastball to remind us of his true greatness, evoking memories of championships won. David Ortiz got to 2nd base on a ball that got by Giambi at first, motoring his 6′4″ 230 pound frame into a headfirst slide. Youkilis, Lowell, Loretta, Manny, and even Wily Mo also continued to grind out at bats, fouling off tough pitches, working counts and generally hustling around. Kapler quietly went about his business like one of the last Dirt Dogs, hustling on every play he was involved in, playing his role as a utility outfielder/pinch runner/defensive replacement.
But, for all the talent on this team, I have to question the passion of the players. Yes, I know, I am not a professional athlete, I don’t know what it is like. But, I ask, do they know what it is like to be a fan? Yes, baseball is a job for them, but last time I checked, the people I know who are most successful at their careers are the ones who are most passionate about it, the people who have an emotional attachment, who CARE about their work. Somehow, I wonder if Trot wasn’t silently being shooed out the back door to make room for Wily Mo, if Tek weren’t so quiet and injured, if Millar or Mueller or Arrojo were there, that this team wouldn’t be playing with a bit more passion, more urgency. Say what you will about Millar’s decline, Arrojo’s declining success in the NL, Tek’s off year, and Trot’s injury history, there is no question in my mind that they understood, that they still understand what it means to be a Boston Red Sox, to carry the hearts and dreams of all “Red Sox Nation” on their backs. These guys understood it. Schilling understands it. Delcarmen undoubtedly understands it, since he’s a Boston kid. But, it seems that too many of them don’t.
Theo has done what he has promised, largely. He has not mortgaged the future at the expense of the present. His additions to this team have been carefully calculated, low risk, high upside transactions that will set us up well for future seasons. Hinske provides a nice insurance policy at third, for when Lowell leaves. Wily Mo is either a trade chip or a Trot replacement, and you can’t help but see the similarities between him and Papi and how he has thrived being around Ortiz this year. Delcarmen and Hansen have bright futures, as do Lester and Papelbon. But, right now, the present does not look bright to me.