I’ve spent the better part of the past two months on vacation. It’s the first vacation I’ve had of this length since before I went to college. The best part of this time, surprisingly, has not been unwinding from the last two years of stress in the markets, but rather getting back to what I really enjoy doing: thinking. Think, read, think some more, read some more, repeat. Hopefully, I’ll care to expound on this at some point in the future.

But, for now, I’ve decided that I should just write. Following the “10,000 hour rule,” I might as well spend as much time thinking and writing as I can, even if some of it is boring (apologies in advance).

For now, my August rumblings:

- The Red Sox absolutely stole Victor Martinez from the Indians. To recap, the Sox traded Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price to the Indians for Victor Martinez.

Let’s consider this carefully. Masterson, while talented, probably never would have been a top reliver for us, nor anything more than a number 5 starter.

Nick Hagadone, while pitching well for class A Greenville, had only 10 starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. Sure, his ERA was under 3, and he struck out more than a batter per inning, but we’re trying to draw conclusions from a grand total of 25 innings. Since he joined the Sox system in 2007, he has logged a grand total of 59.1 innings. Scout him as much as you wish, but with less than a full season of results, I find it incredibly difficult to fall in love with a pitching prospect, even a fireballing lefty.

Bryan Price, similarly, joined the Sox system in only 2008 and has fewer than 150 innings of pro experience. We can almost throw out his college numbers, as he didn’t throw more than 11 innings until his final season in 2007. While in the Sox system, he did strike out more than a batter an inning and didn’t walk many. What was concerning was his ERA over 6.5 this year once he made the jump to Salem, but, given the secondary statistics, I find it hard to write him off.

I suppose what I’m saying, in a roundabout way, is this: we gave up a pitcher that had very low value to the Sox and two prospects that were at least 2 years from major league ready. Now, of course, no one wants to mortgage the future, but consider this: if Victor Martinez were to leave the Sox as a free agent after next season, the Sox would likely receive 2 compensation draft picks for him. We’d essentially get two prospects back (granted a year and a half behind schedule).

So, net net, worst case scenario, 1.5 years of Martinez for several years of Masterson, with a delay of 1.5 years and the obvious difference in salary. I’ll make that trade every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

- Something that we may need to consider in the offseason: Whether or not Mike Lowell becomes a quasi full time DH. I’d love to see him healthy and back at third, pushing Youk back to 1B, but as things stand now, that doesn’t look realistic.

- Is this how the Dice-K experiment ends? Honestly, two and a half months on the DL is ridiculous for a non surgery situation. I know the baseball culture as far as preparation is entirely different in Japan, but this stinks of someone, regardless of origin, not coming to work prepared. I don’t care whether he didn’t agree with John Farrell’s arm program or not, the onus was on him to find a way to come into the season prepared. Unlike the NFL, where contracts aren’t guaranteed, I have zero sympathy for baseball or basketball players, on guaranteed contracts, who loaf around during the middle of a long contract. Considering what a huge deal Japanese players in the MLB are back in Japan (when I’ve visited, the sports highlights shows devote an entire segment to the players in the MLB, showing EVERY one of the position players ABs), I’d have expected that he’d have the respect and the pride to bring his absolute best to the world stage.

- How good is Ellsbury going to be in another two seasons? I might be going out on a limb here, but I think he’ll be a more valuable player than Dustin Pedroia.

- I want to know what odds Vegas is making on Papelbon being a Yankee in 2011? It dovetails so nicely right now. Rivera looks excellent, but the pinstripes need bullpen help. Papelbon is going to go for the big payday, and with Daniel Bard looking like a better version with, ahem, control and a wicked curve, I can’t see the Sox stumping up the cash. Personally, I think closer is one of the most overpaid positions in baseball.

Think about the big money teams:
Yanks clearly have the need and the money. Sox have less of a need, I’d argue, although they do have the money. The Mets appear to be set with K-Rod, although he will only have one year left on his contract in 2011. The Cubs always have to be considered, although with the current ownership situation, it is hard to tell whether they will continue to be relatively big spenders or not (and Kevin Gregg doesn’t appear to be the answer). Detroit, granted the picture may have changed substantially in the next 18 months, but given the economy there, I don’t see them spending big on a closer. I don’t think the Halos will go and spring for Paps; it just isn’t their style to go after a pitching splash. The Phils might get in on him if Lidge doesn’t right himself. I tend to think the Dodgers are out, as they look solid with Broxton.

So, in conclusion, I think the most likely suitors will be the Yanks and the Phils, with the Cubs and Halos as the dark horses. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll be happy as a clam if the Sox keep him. Good relievers are hard enough to find, let alone elite ones and, even with all his faults, Papelbon is an elite reliever.

That’s all for now, more thoughts later.